Clinical versus actuarial judgment.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.
منابع مشابه
Running head: PAUL MEEHL AND FAST AND FRUGAL HEURISTICS From Meehl (1954) to Fast and Frugal Heuristics (And Back): New Insights into How to Bridge the Clinical-Actuarial Divide
It is hard to overestimate Paul Meehl’s influence on the psychology of judgment and decision making. His “disturbing little book” Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence is known as attacking human judgment and calling for replacing clinicians by linear actuarial methods. More than forty years later, fast and frugal heuristics—proposed as mode...
متن کاملFrom Meehl to Fast and Frugal Heuristics (and Back) New Insights into How to Bridge the Clinical–Actuarial Divide
It is difficult to overestimate Paul Meehl’s influence on judgment and decision-making research. His ‘disturbing little book’ (Meehl, 1986, p. 370) Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence (1954) is known as an attack on human judgment and a call for replacing clinicians with actuarial methods. More than 40 years later, fast and frugal heuristi...
متن کاملThrowing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?
The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 an...
متن کاملImpact of Bispectral Index Monitoring Versus Clinical Judgment as a Guide for Conduction of Anesthesia on Serum Cortisol Level in Co-ronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery
Background: Inadequate depth of anesthesia leads to release of stress hormones. Electroencephalographic monitoring by bispectral index is a guide to asses the depth of anesthesia. The aim of the present study was to measure the serum cortisol levels as an index of stress response in patients who are candidates for coronary artery bypass graft surgery in two groups of patients. Methods: Seventy-...
متن کاملDo we under utilise actuarial judgement and decision analysis?
Introduction Whereas in the clinical method we use whatever data we believe relevant, actuarial judgement exclusively uses empirically established statistical links between patient data and outcome, choosing the path the “numbers” recommend. The actuarial method may rely exclusively on a main effects linear regression model, but also may use a decision tree model allowing at least 2 choice poin...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Science
دوره 243 4899 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 1989